Shiny odds

Editorial desk · 2026-10-21 · data d2dfaee739

A dry streak does not shrink the expected future wait. Each eligible wild spawn is still a 1/4096 check, so the mean wait for the next shiny is 4096 eligible checks even after many failures. The calculator uses N future independent checks: 1 − (4095/4096)^N is the chance of at least one shiny in that future block. It is not the conditional probability that a known failed past check was shiny. A wild shiny has double HP and gives ×5 experience; that does not grant your shiny partner a permanent attack buff.

The gacha uses a different shiny rate, 1%, directly confirmed in gacha.js. Do not apply that to wild encounters. The official sprites-meta.js and hasShiny check confirm 958 eligible species and eight without shiny sprites: Karrablast (#588), Greedent (#820), Barraskewda (#847), Milcery (#868), Glastrier (#896), Oinkologne (#916), Naclstack (#933) and Koraidon (#1007). The tool returns zero eligibility for those eight rather than inventing a shiny chance.

Count eligible spawned encounters or checks, not arbitrary kills: spawner.js rolls when spawning a species with a shiny sprite. N checks give cumulative chance 1 − (1 − p)^N; a dry streak leaves the next check unchanged. A requested confidence below 100% can be inverted with ceil(log(1 − confidence) / log(1 − p)). There is no finite guaranteed threshold. Gacha's already-owned shiny reroll and completed-pool fallback depend on the collection and are outside the independent-roll calculation.

Game version d2dfaee739, fixed Git commit 3c9641c9e782cf74afbde490f39cd60adf59e32b, checked 21 October 2026. The exact model is conditional on eligible checks; it does not predict a species encounter frequency or read your collection.